Top PV Markets: Q1’19 Market Reports
Monday June 10, 2019
Q1’19 reports have been released, announcing the top installers in 2018 and giving forecasts for 2019 and beyond.
China installed the most solar by a huge amount in 2018, but did not reach their massive ~53GW installed in 2017, and actually saw the market contracting somewhat. The US, while taking second place in terms of total installations in 2018, saw growth between 2017 and 2018 remain relatively flat. Growth in Japan was also slow, as was growth in India. Overall, the market only increased ~3GW in 2018 over 2017.
The market, however, is looking up for 2019 – 2021, with a forecast CAGR of 6.74%. Growth over the next three years will come increasingly from Europe and other new markets as the global solar market diversifies. This is being driven not only by policy changes but also by the ever increasing affordability of green solar energy.
Production will remain tightly focused in China and the APAC region, with established producers fighting to survive in a market which continues to consolidate. The winners in the market will be those who are integrated through the supply chain, from ingot or polysilicon through to the final module or even power plant.
The monocrystalline market is also taking over the market and has reached an estimated 59% of wafer production in Q4’18, and is forecast to achieve an overall demand of >65% in 2019. Indeed, during PVCellTech, held in Malaysia in March, the consensus from many of the industry experts was that the percentage of mono is only limited by overall demand in the market – that is, mono capacity will be fully utilised, and any other requirements from the market will be made up by multi technology.
A number of top multi producers are now focusing their efforts on transferring their capacity over to higher efficiency products, be that through a full transition from multi to mono, or investments in ultra high efficiency multi processing or quasi-mono production. GCL in particular are looking into investing into cast mono products, which they believe will help them remain competitive against top mono producers such as LONGi.
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